Wii Wait for Third Party Support

Will Nintendo's Wii make it without Third Party Support?

Sure, sure the Wii is a hit. It’s phenomenal sales of 13.7 million units as of September 2007 is astounding. Its marketing shift away from traditional games to new markets was a brilliant move, both in a marketing sense (growing the existing market) and in a competitive sense (where Nintendo couldn’t keep up with Sony and Microsoft).

But…there’s a big but.

Selling a lot of systems is great up front. However, it’s only one half of an equation. Nintendo needs sustained gaming success to drive the Wii. The hardware will only sell and sustain Nintendo for so long, and then the games will be what defines and rejuvenates the system over and over. Playstation 2’s continued sales prove this fact. Despite being a six year-old system, it continues to sell surprisingly well (better than the PS3) because of the depth of games offered.

Wii lacks games.

Beyond the Nintendo-created titles (Mario this, Mario that), Nintendo’s third party titles aren’t selling well. What does this mean? It means games created by other companies are not being bought by consumers, either for a lack of interest or because the developers haven’t really grasped the Wii’s true potential. Regardless the reason, bad third-party sales are a good indicator that developers will turn away from Nintendo for the more traditional consoles where they can make profits.

And Nintendo will lose ground. Perhaps I’m early on calling it, but Japan’s latest console sales are a good bellwether for the Wii. The recent sales figures show that the PS3 is now outpacing the Wii and analysts predict that the playing field will be close to even by the end of 2008.

I estimate the Wii’s novelty will wear off by around August of this year. If Wii doesn’t start producing “A” title third-party games (ala Bioshock, Halo 3, Call of Duty 4, Rock Band) like the other systems, Nintendo will find itself in the same position it was with the woeful Gamecube. Wii will end up last in the console race despite its boundless innovation and massive momentum.